The Florida Primary

Several stories going on here tonight: Will Florida be Rudy Guiliani's Waterloo? What will happen to the Democratic voters who have been disenfrancished by the DNC? What about the Kennedy endorsement of Obama?

I think Guiliani shot himself in the foot by ignoring the previous primaries and caucauses (caucausi?). Florida is a big state, and Rudy has spent considerable time and money here, but I don't think a New York mayor is going to do as well as he hopes (or thinks) he'll do. I just heard that (before the polls closed) Guiliani is running in third place. I think that's about where he will end up - maybe drop into fourth. Florida voters won't think about the time and effort put into Florida by Guiliani, or that he considers Florida "his" state. They'll see that other states didn't think much of Guiliani and wonder why they should vote for him when others didn't. He put all his eggs into one basket and I think all he'll end up with is scrambled eggs.

Because Florida didn't play by the DNC rules, the Democratic delegates have been taken away from Florida. If I were a Democratic voter, I would be furious that my vote isn't important to the party.

And finally, the Kennedy endorsement. The Kennedy clan, in the form of Senator Teddy, America's Daughter Caroline, and Representative Patrick, all have endorsed Obama. They totally ignored Hillary and slapped the Clinton's in the face with this endorsement. I find it interesting that they announced this endorsement just hours before the Florida primary. The Clinton campaign couldn't do much damage control, but the media was lapping it up and giving Obama a whole lot of publicity. Those who think the Kennedy clan is still Camelot will give more thought to Obama. The rest of us, who remember Jack and Bobby and think Senator Teddy can't hold a candle to either of his older brothers, will make our decisions based on rational thought, not blindless devotion.

Who will win Florida? I'm leaning toward a McCain win, but I wouldn't be surprised if Romney didn't pull it out. I'd love to see a Huckabee win, but I'm not expecting it. Giuiliani will pull out along with Ron Paul.