Saturday, May 28, 2005

Hurricanes Happen

Well, it’s almost June and as everyone in Florida knows, or should know, that’s the beginning of hurricane season. For the most part, we won’t have any storms that amount to anything until August. September will probably be the most active and then it begins to wind down in October. November is still hurricane season, but it’s rare that we have hurricanes that late in the year. But, hurricanes can happen anytime from June 1 to November 30.

You may remember that Florida was hit four times last year by major hurricanes, and had a fifth turned just a little more easterly, it would have gotten us too. There were complaints that the forecasters didn’t give enough warning to the areas that were hit by the ‘canes. As a one who has lived in Florida since I was just a little girl, let me tell you something: it’s not an exact science. Hurricanes are still guided by climatological conditions. A shift in an air mass over Oklahoma can push a hurricane eastward. A cold front over New York can cause a hurricane to move west. Hurricane Charlie was originally forecast to hit Manatee County where I live, but a change in weather conditions somewhere changed its movement and it slammed into Charlotte County. Not all, but some of the devastation was caused by people who listened to the forecasts that Charlie was going inland at Manatee County and decided they didn’t need to worry about boarding up. I know; I’ve seen it happen in other storms.

Everyone who lives in Florida must prepare themselves as if a hurricane is coming down their street. When the meteorologists start making their predictions, they include an area on either side of the anticipated landfall area where the storm may hit. For example, Charlie was supposed to hit Manatee County, but there were indicators on every weather broadcast showing that Charlie could also make landfall just about anywhere on the Gulf Coast. That’s from Naples/Everglades City to Pensacola. If you look at a map, a few degrees in either direction can make a big difference.

Storm forecasters use the data supplied by reconnaissance aircraft and historical data. As I said, it’s not an exact science. If it were, storm forecasters would have known well in advance that Punta Gorda would take the hardest brunt of Charlie.

Starting June 1, Florida will have a tax-free week on hurricane related supplies. That includes lumber to board windows, nails and screws, (probably) power tools, batteries, flashlights, generators, candles, lanterns, portable cook stoves, coolers, and just about anything else that can be used as hurricane supplies. I would include canned food and bottled water in that list, but I’m not sure if they taxed or not – some food is taxed, others not. (Where food is concerned, if I need it, I don’t worry about whether it’s taxed or not.) I don’t have a lot of room for storage, but I plan to make some purchases of my own.

Every household needs to have a hurricane plan. Will we evacuate? Are we required to evacuate? Our counties are set up into evacuation zones. The newspapers will be printing a hurricane map with the evacuation zones in the next couple of weeks. Zone 1, for instance, is all mobile homes and homes on the Gulf. The islands flood during a heavy rain and a hurricane usually has a very heavy rainfall. This is a mandatory evacuation zone because of flooding and water surges and tidal waves. Each zone is slightly further inland, or on a river, bayou, or inlet that is prone to flooding. I happen to live in an area that, if evacuated, means Noah has built the Ark and is lining up the animals two by two.

If you evacuate, where will you go? What will you take? Some evacuation centers will not accept pets, some are not designed to take people who need oxygen or have other special needs. So, everyone needs to decide early on where they will go. Maybe you have friends or relatives you can go to. Find out now what they will want you to bring. You might think sleeping bags and a deck of cards are enough. They might be thinking along the lines of extra food and a camp stove. And they might be allergic to Fluffy. What are you going to do with your cat?

Another question is when to evacuate. Don’t wait until the last minute, when the wind and rain have begun to pick up. It may be too late then. Oh, the storm might still be a few hours away, but the roads may be too congested. You need to decide early what direction you plan to go in.

In short, it’s up to you to make preparations for hurricane survival. The forecasters can only give a general idea of where a hurricane will make landfall. If you aren’t properly prepared, you can’t blame the forecasters if you sustain damage to your home or injury to yourself or family members.

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