Sunday, January 23, 2005

Looking Ahead to 2008

I'm not going to make predications, especially four years out, but there is so much out there about who will be running that I just wanted to offer my humble opinion.

I can't say too much about the GOP side. There are several who may be thinking of running. The only one I can speak to with any authority at all is Jeb Bush. He has said he has no intention of running in 2008, but his trip to the Indian Ocean after the Tsunami left me wondering. Two reasons he was sent: 1. He has a lot of experience with natural disasters after dealing with the aftermath of four hurricanes in what? six weeks? and 2. He is the POTUS's brother. If Bush can expect a true report from anyone, his brother, the governor, should be the one.

Jeb has said he has no intention of running for POTUS in 2008 and I tend to believe him. I think he, and the country, not to mention Florida, would be better served running for Bill Nelson's seat in 2006 and then for POTUS if he wants in 2012. He would have that much more national experience to draw upon.

I know that the the word is that Hilary plans to make a run for POTUS in 2008. I personally don't think she has much of a chance. I don't think any woman will be elected POTUS until a woman has served as VP first. Geraldine Ferraro broke the ice as a candidate. If Hilary would run as VP, I think she'd have a better chance than running for POTUS.

Same for any black male wanting a shot at POTUS. It's not so much as showing that you are qualified for the office as getting the public used to seeing a black or female face associated with the office of VP. I'm assuming that whoever runs for the office of either POTUS or VP is qualified for the position. And anybody, female or male, black or white has to be just that much better than any white male also vying for either the number one or number two office.

I'm not being sexist or racist. I'm being a realist. I don't think the American mentality is ready to elect either a woman or a black as POTUS yet. First things first. First run as VP, then get elected. Then, run as POTUS. It will take time, but it will happen.

It takes baby steps to get from one place to another. We'll get to the point where being a woman or being black isn't a hindrance to aspiring to the White House, but I doubt the American mentality will be changed in the next four years.

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